Bethlehem's Christian Share Fell from 86% to About 12%: Before, Under Israel, and Under the PA

The birthplace of Jesus Christ is in Bethlehem, in the West Bank. In 1950, Bethlehem and its surrounding towns were approximately 86% Christian. Today, Christians make up less than 10% of the population. Much of this decline occurred before 1967, when the share had already dropped to an estimated 35%, and it continued under Israeli and then PA administration (KAS).

Israel captured the West Bank, including Bethlehem, from Jordan in the 1967 Six-Day War. Under Israeli military administration from 1967 to 1995, Christian emigration and a declining Christian share continued. Christians continued to operate their churches, schools, and businesses. The Church of the Nativity functioned normally. Christian emigration occurred for economic reasons common across the region, but not at crisis rates.

Bethlehem's tourism economy, which depended on Christian pilgrims visiting the birthplace of Jesus, was a functioning industry under Israeli administration.

Under the Oslo II Accords, Israel transferred civilian and security control of Bethlehem to the Palestinian Authority in December 1995. The PA held a triumphant ceremony. Yasser Arafat arrived from Gaza.

In the years following, Christian emigration from Bethlehem accelerated sharply. The causes documented by researchers, journalists, and human rights organizations include:

• Land seizures: PA officials and connected families appropriated Christian-owned land, often using opaque legal mechanisms or simple force without recourse
• Business pressure: Muslim-owned businesses preferentially received PA contracts and permits; Christian-owned businesses faced discrimination
• Social intimidation: Inter-religious tensions increased; Christian women reported harassment for not wearing head coverings; interfaith relationships or marriages became dangerous
• Islamization of governance: PA institutions increasingly operated under Islamic legal frameworks that disadvantaged religious minorities
• Security vacuum: During the Second Intifada (2000–2005), Palestinian militias used Christian neighborhoods as bases and firing positions, knowing the IDF would be more constrained in responding. Christian residents caught between Israeli military operations and Palestinian militias had nowhere safe

A 2012 report by the Gatestone Institute documented specific cases of land theft, assault, and business intimidation against Christian families in the Bethlehem area under PA governance [link needed]. Palestinian Christian sources and other researchers also cite the economic decline, Israeli movement restrictions and land confiscation for the barrier and settlements as major drivers of emigration (Al-Quds).

The Bethlehem pattern is part of a broader regional collapse of Christian communities under Muslim-majority governance:

• Iraq: 1.5 million Christians in 2003 → approximately 200,000 today, following ISIS persecution and ongoing displacement
• Syria: 10% Christian before 2011 → approximately 5% today
• Egypt: Coptic Christians (10% of population) face ongoing violence, church burnings, and legal discrimination
• Gaza: The small Christian community in Gaza — approximately 1,000 people — has faced harassment, church attacks, and forced conversions under Hamas governance
• Lebanon: The Maronite Christian community, once the dominant political force, has been demographically and politically marginalized

Against this regional pattern, Israel is the only country in the Middle East where the Christian population has grown since 1948. Israeli Arab Christians, approximately 175,000 people, are among the most educated and economically successful communities in the country.

The collapse of Christianity in its holiest city — Bethlehem — under Palestinian Authority governance receives almost no coverage in Western media. The reasons are structural:

• It does not fit the dominant narrative framework, which assigns Palestinian Christians to the category of victims of Israeli occupation
• Palestinian Authority officials have systematically blamed Israeli checkpoints and the security barrier for Christian emigration, and Western journalists have largely accepted this framing
• Palestinian Christian clergy, many of whom depend on PA tolerance to operate their institutions, are reluctant to publicly criticize the PA
• The Israeli security barrier (built 2002–2004 during the Second Intifada) did restrict movement and affected Bethlehem's economy — but the Christian emigration accelerated beginning in 1995, a full seven years before the barrier was built

Christian shares in the Bethlehem area declined under Jordanian, Israeli and PA rule alike; Christians report both pressure from the PA environment (land disputes, harassment, discrimination) and the effects of Israeli occupation (movement restrictions, the barrier, land loss) as causes. This is documented by census data, open-source church attendance records, and the testimony of Christian emigrants — most of whom now live in Latin America, the United States, Australia, and South America.